Humpty Dumpty
Update 74
‘When I use a word’, Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, ‘it means just what I choose it to mean—neither more nor less.’ ‘The question is’, said Alice, ‘whether you can make words mean so many different things.’ ‘The question is’, said Humpty Dumpty, ‘which is to be master—that's all.’
Lewis Carroll Through the Looking Glass.
Following my previous update discussing Dr Michael Biggs’ important points about the misleading gender question in the census, thanks to my friend for referring me back to a very important discussion paper by Alice Sullivan, a Professor of Sociology, on the judicial review that was taken against the Office for National Statistics (ONS) by Fair Play for Women about the original guidance to the question ‘What is your sex?’ . Very importantly, ONS conceded the case. However the ‘gender question’ that Michael Biggs has honed in on was left in place and this is what has caused all the problems.
See Alice Sullivan’s excellent paper here: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1467-923X.13029
Thanks also to Alice for providing me ( indirectly as it were) with the spot on Humpty Dumpty quote :)
The Times has also reported on Michael Biggs’ points ( James Beal Watchdog to examine ‘implausible’ UK census trans figures 11 April):
The statistics regulator is examining concerns that the data behind landmark census figures on the UK’s transgender population may be flawed.
Academics have queried findings by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) that 262,000 people identify as transgender in England and Wales.
Michael Biggs, a professor of sociology at the University of Oxford, believes the question posed to record the gender identity of respondents may have confused those whose first language is not English.
He claimed it may be why the London boroughs of Newham and Brent, which have a significant percentage of residents who speak English as a second language, recorded the highest proportion of transgender people in the UK. Overall, those who speak English poorly were found to be five times more likely to be transgender, prompting concerns about the data.
The ONS confirmed that it was working with the Office for Statistics Regulation on the issue and conceded it was “possible” that respondents had misinterpreted the question. Biggs said: “I’m 99 per cent sure that misinterpretation has had a significant impact in inflating the numbers.”
In January the ONS produced figures showing that there were 262,000 people — or 0.5 per cent of the population over the age of 16 — who declared themselves transgender. The results were taken from answers to the latest census in 2021, which is produced every ten years and explored gender identity for the first time that year.
Of the 262,000 people who said they were transgender, 118,000 did not provide further details. About 48,000, or 0.1 per cent of the population aged 16 and over, identified as a trans man, and 48,000 identified as a trans woman. Thirty-thousand people identified as non-binary, while a further 18,000 wrote down a different gender identity.
However, other data from the ONS released last week showed that those who speak English “not well” or “not well at all” were most likely to be counted as transgender, at 2.2 per cent. This compared with 0.4 per cent of those whose main language is English or Welsh — making those who speak English poorly five times more likely to be transgender.
Adults whose main language is not English made up 10 per cent of the overall population but, according to the census, they contributed 29 per cent of the transgender numbers. The census results also show that one in 67 Muslims is transgender, a figure Biggs claims is “not plausible”.
Biggs, who first made his census claims in The Spectator magazine last week, said the problem with the figures originates from the question itself. He noted that the ONS did not simply ask respondents: “Are you transgender?” Instead, it asked: “Is the gender you identify with the same as your sex registered at birth?” This was done following consultations with LGBTQ lobby groups such as Stonewall, he claimed.
Biggs said the authors “never thought about how a Bangladeshi grandmother or a Hungarian plumber will think about this question”, adding: “I’d be disappointed if a master’s student at Oxford made that error.”
He said: “I think the ONS has got to release more detail that will allow us to probe further. They owe it to us, having screwed up.”
Biggs said that up to a third of responses could have been affected, although he stressed it was impossible to provide a reliable estimate without looking at the responses in more detail.
He said the question produced “anomalies” such as Newham and Brent topping the list for proportion of transgender population by local authority, at 1.5 and 1.3 per cent respectively. Brighton and Hove, home to the country’s longest-running Trans Pride celebration, was in 20th place, on 1 per cent.
Alice Sullivan, a professor of sociology from University College London who has also expressed concerns about the question, said: “It’s such a shame because it’s such a missed opportunity. This should have been the gold standard. It’s so hard to understand how the ONS could fail ‘questionnaire design 101’ in this way. It is particularly important when asking about a small minority group. It’s mind-blowing to me.”
The ONS maintained that the 2021 census results on its gender identity question were “broadly consistent with NHS data collected in the same year”. “However,” a spokesman added, “while the question on gender identity was tested thoroughly, it is possible that individual responses were affected by different interpretations of the question and we will do more work to understand whether that was an issue.
“As this is the first time that the census has asked this question, and as a relatively small proportion of respondents reported having a gender identity different to their sex at birth, analysing the nature and quality of the responses to this question is more challenging than with most other census variables.”
When asked about claims that the question was formulated with input from LGBTQ groups, he said: “We developed and tested various different formulations of the gender identity question, ultimately using the version that was shown to give the most accurate results. We intend to publish more research on this topic later in the year.”
The Office for Statistics Regulation was approached for comment.
EDI Jester has now done an excellent post on this and I agree with his call for these particular results to be removed as being totally unreliable:
Great and very important stuff, Michael Biggs and Alice Sullivan.
SNP to challenge the use of the Scotland Act
Jon Stone in The Independent ( UK government faces legal action after blocking Scotland’s gender recognition law 12 April) reports [ only a short quote here, Terven, because then it goes all woo woo - I do a lot of reading of the Independent and the Guardian as I trawl through the net to bring you nuggets and usually , after about five seconds, I am swearing at the computer - so I usually save you from having to endure most of this drivel]:
Scotland’s government is to press ahead with a legal challenge to Westminster's decision to veto gender ID reforms.
Social Justice Secretary Shirley-Anne Somerville said the controversial Gender Recognition Reform Bill “was passed by an overwhelming majority of the Scottish Parliament, with support from members of all parties”.
Westminster’s use of a Section 35 order to block the legislation represents “an unprecedented challenge to the Scottish Parliament's ability to legislate on clearly devolved matters and it risks setting a dangerous constitutional precedent”, she added.
Ms Somerville confirmed that Scottish ministers would “lodge a petition for a judicial review” of the decision by Rishi Sunak’s administration.
So do you think that section 35 should never have been used, Ms Somerville? Why is it there if it shouldn’t be used? Anyway bring it on - let’s get it to the UK Supreme Court! I’ll be in the public gallery. And by the way, you had better get a move on because you are very near to the 3 month judicial review time limit!
Anyway, you have got some great supporters!
Katie Harris in the Daily Express (Transgender paedophile hails Sturgeon as a 'great First Minister' who will be 'missed' 12 April) reports:
A transgender paedophile who was allowed to serve time in a women's prison praised Nicola Sturgeon as a "great First Minister", it has emerged. In a series of Twitter posts, Katie Dolatowski - who has been convicted of carrying out offences against young girls in supermarket toilets - expressed disappointment at Ms Sturgeon's shock resignation.
I’m sure he will be fine with Mr Yousaf!
Masters in Being A Box
Great stuff from EDI on …wait for it…a Masters Degree in Queer Performativity!!!!
I am going to work on setting up a proposal for a Masters Degree in Being A Box. This is inspired by someone who I met at the Glastonbury Festival once who was employed to walk around as a red box. He was not very happy about it but would, I'm sure, have been much happier if he could have gained a qualification as a result.
File under You Couldn’t Make It Up:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8AQgtpgmnFg
Glinner Update
Phew, thanks to JL for saving us as ever ( for the moment, at least) with the Good News. Especially glad to hear about the Gardai ( the Irish Police) rejecting the Pronoun Gestapo.
https://grahamlinehan.substack.com/p/a-week-in-the-war-on-women-monday-5ed
Kellie-Jay
Great to see the return of excellent discussions in Terf Talk Tuesday and also a report on the treacherous Daniel Radcliffe and other matters:
I’ve run out of puff now and have stopped breathing fire , Terven! :)
Dusty on a good day :)
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